A Parametric Study of Cyclone Intensity in the Bay of Bengal Using Calibrated Historical Data
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.56532/mjsat.v6i2.533Keywords:
Bay of Bengal, Cyclone, Data calibration, Empirical model, Holland wind profileAbstract
This research explores the dynamics of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal by analyzing key meteorological parameters such as central pressure, wind velocity, and the radius of maximum wind. Historical cyclone data (1999-2023) from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department were used to calibrate a modified empirical model based on the Holland wind profile. Four major cyclones- AMPHAN, FANI, SIDR, and NARGIS- were selected for analysis due to their well-documented intensity variations, landfall proximity to the Bangladesh coast, and complete availability of meteorological records, making them representative of different cyclone categories in the region. Model performance was assessed by comparing observed and simulated wind fields, where the modified model demonstrated strong agreement with historical observations. The validation was supported through quantitative performance indicators, including root mean square error (RMSE) and correlation coefficients, which confirmed improved wind field representation. The study further reveals that cyclone intensity is highly sensitive to small variations in central pressure and wind radius, indicating their dominant role in cyclone dynamics. These findings highlight the potential of the model to enhance early warning systems, disaster preparedness, and policy planning in cyclone-prone coastal regions, particularly in Bangladesh. The model shows promise for integration into operational forecasting frameworks for more accurate and timely cyclone predictions.
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